Assumption-only
Built from your inputs and confirmed assumptions.
commercial simulation
Commercial simulation.
Compare a no-campaign baseline with the campaign case, then change the assumptions and see what happens to contribution.
How a scenario is calculated.
- Establish the no-campaign baseline over the same period and definitions.
- Apply the campaign assumptions.
- Calculate incremental units and net revenue.
- Deduct incremental variable costs, cannibalisation, and displaced demand.
- Deduct campaign costs to reach contribution after campaign costs.
- Calculate break-even, only where a positive unit contribution supports it.
- Run the sensitivity checks and explain the result.
The arithmetic uses explicit decimal calculation and a versioned configuration, so the same inputs give the same answer. The language model explains and challenges. It does not calculate.
What you can change.
Spending, prices, discounts, distribution, stock limits, channel allocations, and the sales drivers that matter for your campaign.
Each submitted calculation uses one scenario run. Editing or saving assumptions does not. Before a run, the screen shows what changed and which allowance it will use. A scenario never changes the assumptions in your original brief.
The campaign package includes three scenario runs. Three more cost US$19.
Every result says how it was made.
Ranges need an explicit basis. Probabilities or confidence intervals appear only where a defensible statistical model supports them.
Benchmark-informed
Uses relevant public or category benchmarks, labelled with their source.
Historically calibrated
Fitted to suitable historical data. Uploading a file alone does not make a scenario calibrated.
Causally supported
Backed by evidence that the campaign caused the change, such as a controlled test.
There is no forecast accuracy promise. MetaModel cannot guarantee that a product will sell, that a budget will deliver a particular return, or that a campaign caused all the sales observed afterwards.
Synthetic audience exploration.
One exploration is included in each campaign package.
The exploration uses your audience definition and evidence to suggest possible reactions, objections, and questions about the proposition across product, price, place, and promotion. It can suggest research to run or changes to consider.
Profiles and responses are labelled synthetic. They are hypotheses, not real consumer interviews, measured willingness to pay, proven demand, or reliable conversion rates. A financial assumption suggested by the exploration must be reviewed and confirmed before a scenario uses it.