example · fictional

A worked example.

Northfield Drinks is an invented company. Every figure on this page is fictional. The page shows the format of each output and how the numbers reconcile. It is not evidence of forecast performance.

Start free diagnostic

start · campaign inputs

The campaign.

Field	Value
Company	Northfield Drinks (fictional)
Product	Northfield Sparkling Tea, 330 ml can
Campaign type	New variant launch
Market and currency	Klang Valley, Malaysia, MYR
Period	8 weeks in 40 stores
Budget	MYR 120,000, excluding tax
Target	150,000 cans
Confirmed stock	120,000 cans in the first production run

think · free diagnostic

What the diagnostic found.

Findings are ranked by commercial importance. Each one names the inputs it relies on.

1 · conflict

The target exceeds confirmed stock.

The brief targets 150,000 cans in 8 weeks. The first production run is 120,000 cans.

inputs: objective · target value · distribution and capacity · stock

2 · gap

Cannibalisation is not addressed.

The new variant shares the chiller shelf and price point with the existing lemon tea. Some buyers will switch rather than add a purchase.

inputs: product and economics · audience · alternatives

3 · gap

There is no repeat-purchase assumption.

The volume target relies on trial alone. Without a repeat assumption, weeks five to eight cannot be planned.

inputs: business objective · baseline and history

recommendation

Confirm supply before committing late media.

Confirm a second production run before booking the final three weeks of media. Agree a cannibalisation share and a repeat rate before scenario work starts.

The fictional customer then confirmed a second production run of 40,000 cans, a cannibalisation share of 10%, and used the one free rerun.

work · campaign package

Brief excerpt.

Management summary

Northfield Sparkling Tea launches in 40 Klang Valley stores over 8 weeks with a budget of MYR 120,000. The plan aims for 150,000 cans, of which 110,000 are incremental to the no-campaign baseline of 40,000 cans. On the confirmed assumptions, the central case returns an estimated MYR 29,600 of contribution after campaign costs.

The result depends most on incremental volume. Below 88,236 incremental cans, the campaign does not recover its cost.

Budget

Fictional example. MYR, excluding tax. Every line shows whether its rate came from the customer, a source, or a modelled assumption.
Activity	Unit	Quantity	Rate	Total	Timing	Basis
Concept check research	study	1	8,000	8,000	Pre-launch	Modelled assumption
Film and stills production	package	1	18,000	18,000	Pre-launch	Customer rate
Paid social	1,000 impressions	2,400	12	28,800	Weeks 1 to 8	Sourced rate
Online video	1,000 impressions	1,500	14	21,000	Weeks 1 to 6	Sourced rate
Creators	creator	6	2,500	15,000	Weeks 1 to 4	Customer rate
In-store display	store	40	300	12,000	Weeks 1 to 8	Customer rate
Sampling	sample	10,000	0.60	6,000	Weeks 1 to 2	Modelled assumption
Agency service fee	fee	1	5,600	5,600	Weeks 1 to 8	Customer rate
Contingency	allowance	1	5,600	5,600	As needed	Modelled assumption
Total, excluding tax				120,000

work · scenarios

Scenario comparison.

Net revenue MYR 3.20 and variable cost MYR 1.70 per can. 10% of incremental cans come from the existing lemon tea, which earns MYR 1.40 per can.

Fictional example. MYR. Assumption-only mode: the fictional customer supplied no sales history, so the low and high cases are a scenario range, not a statistical interval.
Measure	Low	Central	High
Incremental cans	80,000	110,000	140,000
Incremental net revenue	256,000	352,000	448,000
Incremental contribution	120,000	165,000	210,000
Contribution lost from lemon tea	−11,200	−15,400	−19,600
Campaign costs	−120,000	−120,000	−120,000
Contribution after campaign costs	−11,200	29,600	70,400

Break-even: MYR 120,000 ÷ MYR 1.36 net contribution per incremental can = 88,236 incremental cans, rounded up.

Sources and assumptions.

Every budget line carries its basis: customer rate, sourced rate, or modelled assumption. In the full report, the evidence register lists each source and the methodology notes state the scenario mode. This example uses assumption-only mode because the fictional customer supplied no sales history.

The full sample report shows every section of the package for this campaign, with charts, sensitivity, and the synthetic audience appendix. You can inspect the format before you start your free campaign.

Open the sample report

Written by Ravi R. Singh, Skill Pilot Advisory.